From Lee Bruce at Tactical Weather. “This is probably the most difficult weather scenario that Fedor has faced. Persistent NNW wind has driven Fedor south of east over the past 24 hours. As he approaches Kerguelen Island, the weather pattern will be in tremendous flux. And the forecast has been changing as to the movement of the primary features. If we were dealing just with the weather, it would not be so difficult. But adding the large land and shoaling of Kerguelen adds a very big problem to the mix. I looked at leaving Kerguelen to port as well also to starboard. Heading to the south of Kerguelen would be easier at first, but it places Fedor about 120 nm southeast of Kerguelen as the wind builds from the SSE and SSW (to gale strength)—forcing Fedor toward the island unless he can manage a port tack in that wind and in those waves. And if he can’t, he has no place to go. So that means leaving Kerguelen to starboard. But getting north won’t be so easy. To leave Kerguelen to starboard, Fedor will have to climb steeply to the NNE, and will have to tangle with a fast-moving low. And after all of that, another quick low will run through his area, bringing a threat of easterly wind. But as difficult as the next few days will be, it is better to take this option than to risk it to the south of Kerguelen. The forecast assumes aiming for 48N 64E, even if it means a heading west of north at times:
The forecast assumes aiming for 48N 64E, even if it means a heading west of north at times:
 17/00Z: NNW 40-45kt gust 50 becoming NW 20-25
17/06: NW 20-25
17/12: NW 20-25 becoming W to WSW 15kt
17/18: WSW 15
18/00: WSW 15 becoming light and variable
(Hopefully at least as far north as 48 30S and west of 64E)
18/06: Light and variable becoming NE 5
18/12: NE to SE 25
18/18: Low very close by, moving ESE. Becoming S 40 gust 50
Fedor reports that he will follow this recommendation and will work hard to get as much North as possible during next 24 hours. Light and variable becoming NE 5 – means choppy and confused seas – so weekend will be very unpleasant.
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